(刊載於 HKET.COM, 30/06/2010) 欄名:宏觀論按 2010年差不多已過一半，是時候回顧半年樓市發展，特別是檢討年初熱門話題和市場預測有多少成真？多少已失效？未來半年樓市又會如何發展？ 先回顧去年底、今年初的一些有關樓市的主要分析： ‧ 香港政府仍然會維持低土地供應 ‧ 超低息環境會持續，縱然美息可能上升 ‧ 環球經濟有復甦跡象、各國為退市作準備 ‧ 由於熱錢眷戀香港樓股市場，香港樓市全年升幅在1成至2成之間 現時看來，有關的預測都需要修正，樓市供應方面，第一季樓市急升，市場討論財政司司長今年的預算案，焦點亦集中在樓價方面。最終迫使政府調整勾地制度，在勾地表之外，主動加入數幅地皮定時拍賣。雖然整體上新增的供應仍偏少，但原先極度偏低的土地供應政策已朝向另一方向走，這裡需要留意政府會否「過猶 不及」地帶來干預風險。
(刊載於 HKET.COM, 02/06/2010) 欄名:宏觀論按 樓市在5月份成交見回落，筆者看過多位業內人士意見，認為6月因遇上世界盃，估計樓市成交持續偏軟。姑勿論6月成交會否因為世界盃而回落，筆者認為在供應及需求角度考慮，下半年樓市將維持高位橫行，既難大升，亦難大跌。 供求變化無大改 下半年樓市難大升大跌 去年香港樓價升幅達3成，樓市急升，社會上各界人士議論紛紛，提出不少冷卻樓市的建議，例如復建居屋，及增加土地供應等。市場上大部分對於避免樓市泡沫化的建議，都集中於供應面。值得留意的是，香港政府除了承諾在勾地表外增加數幅土地供拍賣(包括下星期推出的何文田地皮)，整體上未見調整偏向緊縮的 土地供應。
(Published by South China Morning Post, 07 Apr 2010) To the pleasant surprise of many, global economies are recovering at a much faster rate than that predicted by the professional pundits. Evidence of this came in Hong Kong last week when the president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, revealed that the Fed was likely to raise short-term interest rates without necessarily waiting for a significant improvement in the unemployment rate as it expected the number of unemployed to remain high for an extended period. The implications for Hong Kong mortgagors will be quite significant.
(刊載於 經濟一週, 27/02/2010) 上期回顧了自上世紀80年代以來香港樓市幾次升跌浪，目的是透過歷史數據，了解現時樓市究竟處於週期中甚麼位置。 當我們討論樓市週期時，不是表示升七年、跌七年等時間跨度重複的現象，而是提醒置業人士，樓市進入長期上升浪或下跌浪，並會維持一段時間，而每次升跌趨勢轉向，均與基本因素改變有關。 如果置業人士確認基本因素改變後，在升市週期初段入市，自然可減少日後面對樓價暴跌、資不抵債的風險。
(刊載於 經濟一週, 20/02/2010) 農曆新年前樓市持續上升，部分屋苑樓價較2010年初已上升逾一成。在一眾置業人士心中懸而未決的問題，可能是樓價是否已過高？若錯過去年的升浪，現時應否追價入市？ 入市的問題，不是簡單片言隻語可以回答。分析樓價是否過高，置業者要考慮樓市週期、經濟週期及自己的生命週期，今期先討論樓市週期。 所謂週期，很多時被借用在經濟，以至股市上。死腦筋一些的人，會研究歷史數據，往往得出經濟、股市、樓市會有「上升n個月、橫行n個月、下跌n個月」的循環。 筆者便聽過樓市「七年循環」理論。1997至2003年樓價跌了六、七年；2003至2009年升市也是持續六、七年，故推論2010年樓價便可能進入下跌浪，進入新週期。
(Published by South China Morning Post, 09 Sep 2009) There is no doubt that Hong Kong’s residential property market has defied all logic, expectations, and global market trends. Property prices for the mass market have risen 15 to 20 per cent since November last year, while the upper-end/luxury market has catapulted ahead anywhere from 25 per cent to 75 per cent. By contrast, for the past 18 months, beginning with the onset of the recent depression-like market slowdown, residential property markets in developed countries such as the United States, England, Japan and Australia have fallen anywhere from 25 to 60 per cent. Even on the mainland, residential property prices in most major cities have been flat or marginally higher, with Shenzhen the outperformer.
(Published by South China Morning Post, 20 Aug 2008) On the eve of the first anniversary of the global credit crisis which continues to dominate news headlines, two words which Hong Kong people understand very well – negative equity – is becoming more of a reality in the US housing market. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, prices in several of what were the most attractive housing markets such as San Diego, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami have declined in the past year by 25 to 35 per cent, whereas the national average has declined 10 to 15 per cent.
(Published by South China Morning Post, 26 Mar 2008) Recently, as the global credit crisis continued to unfold, the two largest quasi-government mortgage companies in the United States, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were again subjected to intense scrutiny. While several issues have been raised, one critical concern was whether their deteriorating financial health was a result of their expansion into mortgage products outside of their primary mission. Considered as government-sponsored enterprises or GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created to operate in America’s secondary mortgage market to ensure that loan originators have sufficient funds to lend to homebuyers at low interest rates.
(Published by South China Morning Post, 21 Nov 2007) In my Concrete Analysis piece in April, I clearly underestimated the impact of the subprime mortgage meltdown and its effects on the broader credit markets. Estimates of the expected credit losses attributable to the subprime mortgage market have grown appreciably in recent months. A recent Goldman Sachs research note estimates the potential losses at US$400 billion, or three times the size of the savings and loan crisis in the United States in the 1980s. While the loss in absolute terms may not seem very large given the size of the US financial markets, the amount of leverage related to investors holding mortgage-backed securities should not be underestimated.
(Published by South China Morning Post, 22 Aug 2007) A year from now, this will be the year many will remember as when they expected another big global financial market adjustment following ‘Black Monday’ in 1987 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. As with all such corrections, the adjustments have different roots and varying degrees of impact. The United States Federal Reserve on Friday last week surprised the market by reducing the rate at which it charges banks to borrow from it – the discount rate.
